# RamaGyver

- Link: https://dearsouthafrica.co.za/news-2/ramagyver/
- Published: 2026-01-13T18:37:29+02:00
- Author: dearSA

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![1986 Redux: Why We Cannot "MacGyver" Our Way Out of Trump’s Tariff Threat](https://
cdn.dearsouthafrica.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/13182124/MacRama-header.jpg"
MacRama header")

### 1986 REDUX: WE CANNOT ‘MACGYVER’ OUR WAY OUT OF TRUMP’S TARIFF THREAT

For South Africans of a certain vintage, the headlines this week induced a distinct
sense of déjà vu. The United States, leveraging its massive consumer market, is 
once again threatening to turn off the tap unless South Africa alters its foreign
policy.

In 1986, it was the Comprehensive Anti-Apartheid Act (CAAA), passed by the US Congress
to force the Nationalist government to abandon institutionalised racism. In 2026,
it is an Executive Order from President Donald Trump, threatening a 25% tariff on
any nation doing business with Iran—a direct shot across the bow of our “non-aligned”
stance.

While the moral contexts are vastly different—1986 was a fight for human rights;
2026 is a transactional geopolitical squeeze—the economic mechanics are terrifyingly
similar. And dangerously, so is the temptation to believe we can simply “go it alone”
again.

**The Weaponisation of Trade**
 The parallels in the American playbook are striking.
Just as the sanctions of the 80s targeted our vulnerabilities—steel, textiles, and
agriculture—Trump’s potential tariffs zero in on the exact same sectors.

Then, as now, the message from Washington is binary: “You cannot have our trade 
dollars if you keep this company.” The threat to our citrus growers in the Western
Cape and our steel exporters is not just a policy nuance; it is an existential risk
to the 93,000 to 426,000 jobs currently supported by US trade and AGOA.

**The “Siege Economy” Trap**
 There is a seductive counter-argument currently circulating
in braai-side conversations: “We survived sanctions before. We built SASOL. We built
Armscor. We can become self-sufficient again.”

It is true that the Apartheid government used isolation as a catalyst for industrialisation.
When they couldn’t buy oil, they squeezed it from coal (SASOL). When they couldn’t
buy NATO weapons, they engineered their own (Armscor).

But we must be clear-eyed about the cost of that “success.” That era of autarky 
created a “siege economy”—expensive, inefficient, and heavily subsidised by the 
taxpayer. We paid a massive “Apartheid Premium” for fuel and goods just to survive.

More importantly, the global economy has changed fundamentally since 1986. Back 
then, a car was mostly steel and rubber. Today, a vehicle rolling off the line relies
on microchips from Asia, gearboxes from Europe, and software from America. You cannot“
import substitute” a global supply chain. In 2026, if tariffs cut us off from the
global ecosystem, we won’t build a new SASOL; our factories will simply close. We
cannot “MacGyver” our way out of a trade war in a digitised, globalised world.

**The Balance Sheet of Survival**
 So, what is the wisest move for a government 
caught between its historical solidarity with the Global South and the economic 
reality of the West?

The answer lies not in ideology, but in a simple balance sheet.

We currently enjoy a massive R36 billion trade surplus with the United States. Our
trade with Iran, by contrast, is negligible—mostly modest agricultural exports.

The “South Africa First” choice is obvious. We cannot sacrifice a R150 billion trading
relationship—and the hundreds of thousands of livelihoods it supports—for the sake
of symbolic naval drills in Simon’s Town.

**The Way Out**
 Our government needs to execute a strategic pivot, and fast.

First, we need a “Strategic Pause” on high-friction activities. We do not need to
publicly denounce our allies, but we must immediately suspend military exercises
that serve as a red rag to the American bull. We can frame this domestically as 
prioritising South African jobs.

Second, we must bypass the bureaucracy. Traditional diplomacy is too slow for the
Trump administration. We need to send a high-level delegation to Washington to strike
a transactional deal: trading assurances on Iran for the security of our auto and
agricultural exports.

Finally, we must mobilise the private sector. The US corporations that manufacture
here—Ford, Amazon, and others—are our best lobbyists. They can explain to the White
House that hurting South Africa hurts their bottom line.

In the 1980s, we learned that isolation comes with a devastating price. In 2026,
we have the opportunity to avoid that cost, but only if we value the paycheques 
of our workers more than the optics of our foreign policy.

_Rob Hutchinson_