# SA government plans for Covid-19 to peak in September but questions about data remain

- Link: https://dearsouthafrica.co.za/2020/04/12/sa-government-plans-for-covid-19-to-peak-in-september-but-questions-about-data-remain/
- Published: 2020-04-12T12:02:07+02:00
- Author: dearSA

![](https://cdn.dearsouthafrica.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/20191111/Screenshot-
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**_The extended five-week national lockdown has postponed South Africa’s worst-case
Covid-19 scenario to September, a government projection shows._**

**_With no lockdown, South Africa was estimated to reach its peak coronavirus infections
in July. A five-week lockdown, that has paralysed the economy, is buying the government
two more months to prepare for a flooding of hospitals at the end of winter._**

This is according to a presentation made to Parliament’s portfolio committee on 
health this week by the acting director general of the department of health, Anban
Pillay, a copy of which News24 has obtained.

It is the most detailed official analysis yet of the current situation that has 
been made public since the first infection was reported at the beginning of March.

**Other key findings in Pillay’s presentation include:**

 * In a worst-case scenario, Gauteng would see over 1.5 million Covid-19 infections
   at the end of winter, followed by KwaZulu-Natal with one million;
 * The country has less than half the number of ventilators needed to deal with 
   peak infection. Public and private hospitals currently have a total of 3 216 
   ventilators, compared to the 7 000 we need, and
 * The country currently has 4 909 critical care hospital beds available, but the
   need for beds in intensive care units could exceed 14 700 at the highest level
   of infection.

Only “severe to critical Covid-19 patients” will be treated at hospitals, while “
mild to moderately infected patients” will be accommodated at field hospitals where
basic medical care will be provided.

The government’s “readiness for worst case scenario” plan was informed by research
from UCT’s Modelling and Simulation Hub Africa. According to this scenario, if the
lockdown was suspended this Thursday after three weeks, the peak would have hit 
the country around 18 August.

Pillay told MPs during a digital meeting of the committee that the health department
is seeing a different trajectory in the infection rate compared to countries such
as South Korea, Britain, the United States and Spain.

According to Pillay’s presentation, based on statistics prepared by Professor Tulio
de Oliveira of the KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation & Sequencing Platform (KRISP),
the gradient of the curve is flatter than some countries which have been seriously
affected.

The presentation, which also covers the state of readiness of both the public and
private sector, tracking and tracing strategy as well as detail about hotspots across
the country, was given to MPs the day after President Cyril Ramaphosa on Wednesday
announced an extension to the lockdown until the end of April.

Although Ramaphosa said there is “sufficient evidence” to show the lockdown is working,
but that it is too early to make a “definitive analysis of the progression of the
disease”, he did not expand on which datasets, epidemiological modelling, or projections
the government used to base its decision on to expand the lockdown.

It is known that the National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS), that conducts testing
on behalf of government, is not close to reaching is target of 36 000 tests per 
day.

The president did consult widely before he announced his decision, including with
opposition leaders, provincial premiers and representatives of business and labour,
but he has not made public what the exact statistics or projections which informed
the decision to extend the lockdown from three to five weeks are.

**‘Scary’ projections**

The presidency on Friday and Saturday did not respond to questions for comment.

A detailed set of questions was sent to presidential spokesperson Khusela Diko on
Friday enquiring what metrics the national command council, which is co-ordinating
the government’s response to the coronavirus, used to determine that the lockdown
must be extended. She did not return a call or respond to a message on Saturday.

John Steenhuisen, the DA leader and leader of the opposition in the National Assembly,
says the lack of data on the spread of the virus is concerning.

“There’s a complete absence of empirical data or detail about which metrics government
will use to measure whether the lockdown is successful or not. They’re not playing
open cards with the public.”

A senior government official privy to the decision-making process said on Saturday
afternoon Ramaphosa is informed “by the best brains in the country” before he makes
decisions and that extending the lockdown was based on scientific evidence put before
him.

The projections which swayed Ramaphosa are “scary”, the official said, and added
that government did not want to create panic.

Professor Cheryl Cohen, one of the lead epidemiologists at the National Institute
for Communicable Diseases (NICD) told News24 that she hopes the projections given
to government will be released soon.

Martin Kingston, the executive chairperson of Rothschild & Co in South Africa, who
is co-ordinating the response to Covid-19 by all business formations through Business
for South Africa, told News24 he is “satisfied” that the decision to extend the 
lockdown was based on “the best available scientific evidence at the time”.

“We are in constant dynamic contact with government, from the minister of health
to National Treasury, the department of labour and the department of trade and industry.
I am absolutely satisfied that the decision was taken with the best available scientific
evidence at the time.

“But we all know, and government acknowledges it, that testing is inadequate and
needs to be expanded,” he said.

**The presentation made to MPs gives insight into the the healthcare system’s state
of readiness:**

 * According to the latest available information the country has less than half 
   the number of ventilators needed to deal with peak infection. The public healthcare
   system currently has 1 111 operational ventilators, with 2 105 operational in
   the private healthcare system for a total of 3 216 ventilators. According to 
   projections the healthcare system would need 7 000 ventilators to deal with the
   virus, a shortage of 3 784.
 * There are currently only 3 318 critical care beds available, with 2 140 of those
   in private hospitals; there are 2 722 high care beds in the country, with only
   1 082 of those in the public sector; there is a total of 119 416 hospital beds
   available, across South Africa.
 * During peak infection in an optimistic scenario, and with one lockdown enforced,
   the peak need for beds in intensive care units could exceed 14 700 beds at the
   highest level, and 4 100 in the lowest level.

Siviwe Gwarube, the DA’s spokesperson for health, says she is concerned that although
the presentation went into more detail than anything seen before, there is still
a lack of data available.

“We’re trying to access data, but what we’ve got now is wholly inadequate.”

[Article by News 24](https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/sa-government-plans-for-covid-19-to-peak-in-september-but-questions-about-data-remain-20200411)